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Experiment ID
1
Pathogen
Yersinia pestis
Contains Preferred Model
1
Reference
Progression of primary pneumonic plague: A mouse model of infection, pathology, and bacterial transcriptional activity
Host type
mice
# of Doses
4.00
Μodel
exponential
k
1.63E-03
LD50/ID50
4.26E+02
Dose Units
CFU
Response
death
Agent Strain
CO92
Exposure Route
intranasal
Experiment Dataset
Mouse/ CO92 model data
DoseDeadSurvivedTotal
100134
1000314
1E+04404
1E+05404
Description: 
Mouse/ CO92 model data [1]
Dose Dead Survived Total
100 1 3 4
1000 3 1 4
1E+04 4 0 4
1E+05 4 0 4

 

Goodness of fit and model selection
Model Deviance Δ Degrees 
of freedom		 χ20.95,1 
p-value		 χ20.95,m-k 
p-value
Exponential 0.338 0.195 3 3.84 
0.658		 7.81 
0.953
Beta Poisson 0.142 2 5.99 
0.931
Exponential is preferred to beta-Poisson; cannot reject good fit for exponential.

 

Optimized k parameter for the exponential model, from 10000 bootstrap iterations
Parameter MLE estimate Percentiles
0.5% 2.5% 5% 95% 97.5% 99.5%
k 1.63E-03 3.62E-04 5.50E-04 6.22E-04 7.02E-03 7.02E-03 7.02E-03
ID50/LD50/ETC* 4.26E+02 9.87E+01 9.87E+01 9.87E+01 1.11E+03 1.26E+03 1.92E+03
*Not a parameter of the exponential model; however, it facilitates comparison with other models.

 

Parameter histogram for exponential model (uncertainty of the parameter)

Exponential model plot, with confidence bounds around optimized model

References

  1. Lathem, W. W., Crosby S. D., Miller V. L., & Goldman W. E. (2005).  Progression of primary pneumonic plague: A mouse model of infection, pathology, and bacterial transcriptional activity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 102, 17786-17791.